XRP traded around $1.34 on 16 October, leaving it roughly four percent beneath the 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $1.36. The immediate question for market participants is whether buyers can push the token back above that benchmark and then sustain it on any pull-back.
How 2023 sets the template
In March 2023, XRP broke above a 200-day SMA near $0.40, slipped back in May, and later recovered. The low that month hovered near $0.42, while analysts at the time pointed to $0.40 as primary support. The token then surged to $0.93 on 13 July, representing a 134.5% increase from the $0.40 level. That rally was amplified by a favorable court ruling in the SEC case against Ripple, adding a catalyst beyond pure technicals.
Translating the past move to today’s levels
If the same 134.5% appreciation were applied to the current SMA of $1.36, the resulting price target would be about $3.20. Starting from the present $1.31-$1.34 range, that implies a rise of roughly 145%. The calculation assumes that the moving average shifts from a resistance zone to a support zone after a successful retest.
Near-term resistance and realistic targets
Analysts have highlighted $1.45 as a more immediate ceiling that could confirm a short-term bounce. The price would first need to reclaim and defend the $1.37 level that marks the SMA before higher resistance zones become relevant. A rejection below the SMA would likely keep bearish sentiment in place, whereas a defended retest would make the historical comparison more applicable.
Why it matters
XRP’s proximity to a pivotal technical level means that a decisive move above the 200-day SMA could reignite investor optimism and attract fresh buying pressure, potentially setting the stage for a multi-digit rally. Conversely, an inability to hold the average may reinforce a down-trend, limiting upside potential and keeping the token vulnerable to broader market swings.
