Experts warn that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could reverse-engineer public keys and uncover the private keys that control billions of dollars in Bitcoin and Ethereum. While no existing machine can break the cryptography used today, recent research has lowered the estimated resources needed, prompting the crypto sector to act before a potential breach materialises.
Scope of the quantum risk
The alliance estimates that roughly 30% of Bitcoin’s supply – about 6.4 million coins – already has its public key revealed, making those assets theoretically exploitable once a capable quantum device appears. This includes the 1.1 million BTC attributed to the creator known as Satoshi Nakamoto. Although current hardware cannot yet perform such an attack, the possibility has led to heightened scrutiny of the underlying digital signatures.
Formation and goals of the Quantum Alliance
Nine companies, among them Hacken, the Midnight Foundation, Quantus and Postquant Labs, announced the Quantum Alliance on Thursday. Their mandate is to develop shared security benchmarks and migration pathways that enable blockchains to adopt quantum-resistant cryptography. The group plans to release standardized tests and guidance that will help wallets, exchanges, custodians and protocol developers transition to new signature schemes.
Debate over mitigation strategies
Stakeholders differ on the best short-term response. Some, like the chief revenue officer of The Vault, argue that custodians must be ready to move assets if the threat materialises earlier than expected. Others, such as the CTO of Postquant Labs, suggest that vulnerable coins could be placed in a trust that allows proven owners to reclaim them later. A proposal from Binance’s founder to freeze Satoshi’s holdings has sparked controversy, with critics saying that any forced confiscation would undermine Bitcoin’s core principle of non-seizure.
Challenges to implementing quantum-resistant upgrades
Switching to post-quantum signatures would require consensus across the entire Bitcoin ecosystem – miners, developers, wallet providers and users alike. The new cryptographic primitives could increase transaction size, potentially raising fees or reducing throughput. Moreover, coordinating a network-wide upgrade presents a logistical and governance hurdle that many view as more demanding than the technical redesign itself.
Why it matters
If a quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptographic schemes emerges, the financial impact could be immense, threatening a significant portion of the world’s digital gold and the broader blockchain economy. The Quantum Alliance’s work aims to pre-empt that scenario by establishing interoperable standards, but success hinges on industry cooperation and timely adoption before a breakthrough occurs.
