Bitcoin is confronting a technical barrier that many on-chain analysts believe could determine whether the cryptocurrency resumes a climb toward fresh all-time highs.
Trend line and technical backdrop
The focal point is the 20-month simple moving average (SMA), calculated at roughly $87,165 on 16 October 2026. This average forms the core of CryptoQuant’s market-cycle tool and sits at the centre of a Bollinger Band framework. The upper band rests near $121,640 while the lower band is around $52,694. Analysts label the space between the lower band and the SMA as an “accumulation base,” whereas the SMA itself is treated as an “inflection frontier” – a price level that historically has marked a turning point when breached from above.
Historically, successful breakouts above this frontier have preceded new cycle highs. The most recent all-time high, recorded on 6 October 2025, was $124,709, and a subsequent peak of $126,200 was reached later that month. CryptoQuant’s model suggests that once Bitcoin pushes past the SMA, the next rally could extend beyond those prior records.
On-chain sentiment and market-cycle indicator
CryptoQuant’s composite bull-bear market-cycle indicator, which aggregates several profitability metrics, now reads 0.186. This marks a notable rise from the 0.042 level observed in August. The improvement has been cited by the platform’s contributors as a signal of growing bullish momentum, despite broader macroeconomic headwinds.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, publicly declared the bear market “over” after the indicator’s upward shift. The same indicator notes that “smart money” tends to take profit when price reaches the upper Bollinger Band, implying that current price action is still in an early phase of a larger move.
Retail sentiment appears more cautious, with many traders viewing the current $82,442 price as a potential top. However, the on-chain market-cycle data classifies the situation as “warming up,” suggesting that broader participant behavior may differ from retail perception.
Liquidity landscape and price confluence
The 20-month SMA aligns closely with Bitcoin’s opening price for 2026, recorded at $87,490. This coincidence reinforces the level’s significance as a resistance zone. Order-book data across major exchanges indicate substantial ask liquidity clustered near this price, creating a sizable wall that could impede upward momentum.
Nevertheless, the combination of technical alignment, on-chain optimism, and a relatively narrow price corridor between the lower Bollinger Band and the SMA may provide the catalyst needed for a breakout.
Why it matters
For investors and traders, the SMA at $87,165 functions as a litmus test for Bitcoin’s next directional bias. A decisive move above this line could validate bullish forecasts, potentially unlocking new price territory and influencing market sentiment across the broader crypto ecosystem. Conversely, failure to breach the level may reinforce a consolidation phase, keeping risk-averse participants on the sidelines. Monitoring on-chain indicators alongside order-book dynamics will be essential for gauging the strength of any emerging trend.
